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学术讲座公告(孟强)

作者:     文章来源:      点击次数:2018-06-25      更新时间:2018-06-25

讲座题目:Container slot booking forecasting model for intercontinental liner shipping services

人:孟强 教授

   间:2018628日(周四)上午900

   点:航海学院万邦楼三楼会议室

   办:航海学院

人:航海学院刘旺盛老师

主要内容:

This talk includes two parts. The first part Prof. Meng will introduce his research areas, projects and achievements on the maritime studies. It will further share his experience about how to find a valuable research problem from a practical project. The second part will concentrate on a specific research problem: forecasting model building for container slot booking with the details as follow.

Intercontinental shipping services link the trades between different continents in the global logistic system. During the container slot booking period before the start of a new ship voyage in an intercontinental service, the shipping company would like to estimate the actual amounts of container slot bookings that will be transported through the long-haul legs of the service. This is because the shipping demands across the long-haul legs significantly affect the profitability of the whole service. This study thus investigates how to forecast the container slot booking amount through the long haul legs of the intercontinental shipping service based on the historical container slot booking data. An integrated forecasting model is developed in this paper. This model is able to combine the predictions from different forecasting models, including piecewise liner regression model, autoregressive model and artificial neural network model, by calculating weighted average of these three models. This model is also able to work in a rolling horizon manner by dynamically adjusting their weights to reflect the up-to-date trend for the container shipping demand. Test results on the real-case container slot booking data from several intercontinental services show the satisfactory forecasting precision of this model.

报告人简介:孟强,博士、教授,教育部长江学者讲座教授,现任新加坡国立大学(NUS)土木与环境工程系教授,新加坡国立大学-新加坡陆路交通局运输中心联合主任,土木与环境工程系交通运输研究中心主任,新加坡海事研究中心物流及航运研究方向负责人,及新加坡国立大学运筹与分析研究院成员。孟教授的研究方向主要集中在交通运输网络建模和优化,航运和多式联运分析以及交通运输定量风险评估,其在国际一流运输和物流SCI / SSCI期刊上发表了超过160篇文章,SCI指数为35SCI引用总数为3574。作为世界上著名的交通及物流方面的专家,他目前担任国际交通领域的顶级期刊《Transportation ResearchPart B和《Transportation ResearchPart E的副主编。从20191月开始,孟教授将被任命为《Transportation ResearchPart E的二个联合主编之一。孟教授也主导了包括APL在内的航运界多项联合研究项目。由于孟教授的杰出研究,他获得了多项荣誉/奖项,包括新加坡国立大学工程学院2018工程研究奖,中国教育部长江讲座教授,2016年香港科技大学土木及环境工程系杰出校友奖,2015年新加坡国立大学工学院 Deans Chair,第十三届世界交通运输研究大会(WCTR)最佳论文奖(2013),第九届EASTS(东亚交通研究学会)国际会议(2011)最佳方法论论文奖,第90TRB年会(2011)高速公路能力和服务质量委员会AHB40最佳论文奖和2009年新加坡MOT(交通部)部长创新奖。

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